Question 1

How do you trade weather on Polymarket?

Accepted Answer

Polymarket lists daily weather markets for cities worldwide — for example, 'Will Chicago's high exceed 30°F tomorrow?' You buy YES or NO shares priced between 1¢ and 99¢. If you're right, each share pays $1. Polyforecast uses five independent forecast models (GFS, ECMWF, ECMWF-AI, ICON, GEM) to estimate the true probability and compares it against the market price. When the models see a significant edge, James takes the trade and emails subscribers the same pick.

Question 2

What forecast models does Polyforecast use?

Accepted Answer

Polyforecast runs five independent numerical weather prediction models: GFS (Global Forecast System from NOAA), ECMWF physical model, ECMWF-AI (machine learning weather model), ICON (German Weather Service), and GEM (Canadian Meteorological Centre). The ensemble probability is the agreement-weighted average across all five. Trades are only taken when multiple models agree the market is mispriced.

Question 3

Is Polyforecast free? What's the catch?

Accepted Answer

Polyforecast is completely free. There is no paid tier, no upsell, and no catch. You receive one email per day with the morning's picks. James shows every loss alongside every win. You can unsubscribe at any time with one click.

Question 4

How often do you send signals and what do they look like?

Accepted Answer

One email per day, every morning before Polymarket weather markets resolve. Each email lists: the city and temperature range, the current market price, the ensemble model probability, and whether James is taking the trade or passing. Yesterday's results are included at the bottom — every win and every loss.

Question 5

What is the track record? Are the results real?

Accepted Answer

Every position shown on polyforecast.io is a real trade executed on Polymarket's CLOB (Central Limit Order Book) with real money. The dashboard updates after every trade resolution with live ROI, win rate, profit factor, and a complete trade-by-trade history. Nothing is hidden or cherry-picked. All positions are verifiable on-chain on Polygon.

Question 6

Who is James Cole?

Accepted Answer

James Cole is a former climate data analyst based in Denver, CO. He built the five-model ensemble system that powers Polyforecast after noticing that Polymarket weather prices frequently diverge from what professional forecast models predict. He trades his own money on every signal he sends to subscribers.

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